Long-form essays on value betting math — Closing Line Value, sharp consensus, ROI variance, Kelly sizing, common novice traps. Open research, not tipster service. The full bet database is at /track/.
ROI on n < 500 bets is uninformative due to high variance. CLV stabilises by n ≈ 50–200 and is a leading indicator of future ROI. Definitions, formulas, sharp-consensus methodology, fractional Kelly sizing.
ROI feels intuitive but lies on small samples. CLV is counter-intuitive but converges 5–10× faster. The psychological + methodological journey to make CLV your primary self-evaluation metric.
Complete metrics catalog for value betting — CLV family, sharp_spread, EV thresholds, bootstrap confidence intervals, drawdown stops, per-sport calibration. Open methodology, no secrets.
Five recurring mistakes that destroy beginner bankrolls — chasing losses, ignoring closing line, overbetting Kelly, mis-reading ROI on small N, trusting tipsters. Field guide for the first 100 bets.
Every paper bet — entry odds, closing line, CLV, P/L — is logged and public. 12-hour delay on the free track.
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