Live · auto-updated every 15 min
Open paper-trading log
Every settled bet, every closing line, every CLV value — public.
Last update: —
Sample size note.
Statistical conclusions about edge require n > 500 bets. Below that, ROI is dominated by variance. CLV is the leading indicator we track instead — see methodology below.
Settled bets
—
paper trading
Avg CLV
—
vs Pinnacle close
Positive CLV
—
of all bets
ROI
—
not statistically significant
Win rate
—
—
Sports tracked
—
from 8 sharp books
CLV vs ROI cumulative
CLV is the leading indicator. ROI catches up only at n > 1000.
Last settled bets
newest first · settled bets only
| Date | Sport | Event | Side | Odds | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
Performance by sport
aggregated, all-time
| Sport | Bets | Win rate | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Performance by bookmaker
aggregated, all-time
| Bookmaker | Bets | Win rate | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Weekly progression
ROI + CLV per ISO week
| Week of | Bets | Win rate | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Methodology
Why CLV, not ROI
CLV (Closing Line Value) measures the gap between your entry odds and the closing line at a sharp book.
→ PDF: Methodological Note on CLVSharp consensus, not single book
Fair line is the median of Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, Matchbook.
→ PDF: Metrics & MethodologyWhy ROI on small n is noise
At n=100 with true edge 0%, ~28% of bettors get ROI ≥ +5% by pure chance.
→ PDF: ROI lies on 100 betsStop criteria
CLV per bet < 0 over rolling 50 → halt. ROI < −5% over n=200 → review.
→ PDF: From ROI to CLV